24-25

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Thu Feb 6, 2025

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>My head is still spinning trying to make sense of avalanche conditions following this roller coaster of weather, and frankly I don’t have any trust in the snowpack at the moment.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The biggest issue is recent </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>hurricane force winds from the south</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>. The Big Sky Ski Patrol intentionally triggered an avalanche with explosives on a slope loaded by these winds producing a slide up to 7 feet deep breaking on the old snow surface from dry weather in late January. They haven’t seen an avalanche like that on that slope in 40-50 years. What do you think we might find in the backcountry? (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34027"><span><span><span><span><span><…;, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.kbzk.com/news/local-news/avalanche-triggered-during-mitigat… story</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>).</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Near Cooke City, large avalanches have been spotted on </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/25/avalanche-north-crown-butte"><spa… Butte</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/25/scotch-bonnet-north-avalanche"><s… Bonnet</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/25/natural-avalanche-mt-henderson-ne…;, and</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/25/natural-avalanche-miller-ridge-ne…; </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><u><span><span>Miller Ridge</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>. Near West Yellowstone on Lionhead, slightly smaller but many fresh wind slabs were </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/33978"><span><span><span><span><span><… on Tuesday</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>. Yesterday at low elevations in the cold air (below the inversion) on Mt Ellis in the northern Gallatin Range, a skier triggered and spotted </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34015"><span><span><span><span><span><… storm slab avalanches in the new snow</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>When you add it all up, these are dangerous avalanche conditions creating several avalanche problems stacked on top of each other - wind slabs, persistent slabs, storm slabs.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<ol>
<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>There are weak layers of small facets buried 1-3 feet deep that formed during dry weather in late January. These weak layers seem more widespread the further south you go.&nbsp;See this video near </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtube.com/shorts/y7Nm5dbbBqQ?feature=shared"><span><span><spa… Yellowstone</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span> and this one near </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtube.com/shorts/BzI5yK0R7FU?feature=shared"><span><span><spa… Sky</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>.</span></span></span></span></span></span></li>
<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>There has been a lot of snow from this weekend and yesterday.</span></span></span></span></span></span></li>
<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>The snow surface got a coating of dust and then became wet on some slopes during warm temperatures late Tuesday.</span></span></span></span></span></span></li>
<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>There have been really strong winds from the south and west. Shifting wind directions and new snow yesterday will make it harder to identify recent wind slabs.</span></span></span></span></span></span></li>
</ol>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>For today the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE. I’m unsure of the likelihood of triggering avalanches today, but I know these are dangerous conditions requiring careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding, and conservative decision making.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The main avalanche problems in the Bridgers are tied to yesterday’s 6-9” of new snow and winds from the north, south, and west both yesterday and earlier this week creating a wind slab avalanche problem. Storm slabs that were sensitive yesterday during high snowfall rates shouldn’t be much of an issue today but still something to watch out for.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<ul>
<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>Skiers north of Bridger Bowl on the ridge spotted numerous </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>wind slabs</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> that released naturally like </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/25/wind-slab-crown-hourglass-couloir… in the Hourglass couloir</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span> not too deep but 200’ wide.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></li>
<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>Another group below heard those avalanches rumbling down but were in safe locations.</span></span></span></span></span></span></li>
<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>On Tuesday, three skiers triggered an avalanche on a wind-loaded terrain feature on Saddle Peak that ran 400 vertical feet. Thankfully, no one was caught, and the slide stopped above the large cliffs (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34007"><span><span><span><strong><span…;).</span></span></span></span></span></span></li>
<li><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34014"><span><span><span><span><span><… north towards Ross Peak</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, skiers observed cracking and many small storm slab avalanches that seemed to be at lower elevations underneath the inversion&nbsp; where the new snow landed on old cold snow.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></li>
</ul>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Today dangerous avalanche conditions exist where winds deposited yesterday’s snow and the danger is CONSIDERABLE on wind loaded slopes. Non-wind loaded slopes have a MODERATE danger where there may be some lingering storm slab instabilities. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

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Bone Crusher avalanche

Date

Swift Current lift shut down all day Wednesday 2/5/25 by ski patrol

Region
Northern Madison
Location (from list)
Big Sky Resort
Observer Name
patrickinbigsky

Natural Avalanches in the Bridgers

Date
Activity
Skiing

Toured up the ramp and north towards hourglass couloir right after heavy snowfall at Bridger. Observed presumably natural wind slab avalanche crown at top of Hourglass (picture). Broke roughly 200ft wide and rather shallow, did not manage to run fully into the apron. Also noted many other small natural avalanches almost all breaking right at the top of the ridge. Strong winds from west loading slopes. Followed some solo tracks down just skiers left of hourglass, noted some instability but no major propagation or slides while skiing. Storm slab not quite cohesive this evening, but could definitely see it getting pretty spooky tomorrow.

Region
Bridger Range
Location (from list)
Hourglass Chute
Observer Name
Titan Cox

Woody Creek Obs

Date
Activity
Skiing

Skied south of Cooke today. Winds were strong with frequent gusts to extreme out of the S. 3cm of new between 1530 and 1700. No cr, co and the wind slab produced moderate, non-planar results in hand pits. Limited vis and no avalanches observed. 

Region
Cooke City
Location (from list)
COOKE CITY
Observer Name
Beartooth Powder Guides

Natural Avalanches in Wolverine Bowl

Wolverine Bowl
Bridger Range
Code
SS-N
Aspect
E
Latitude
45.83010
Longitude
-110.93400
Notes

After skiing Bradley's Meadow, we skied north into Wolverine Bowl aiming to go up the backside of Texas Meadows. When we were in the large flat meadow to the north of Hourglass Chute we heard two avalanches come down from the ridge a few hundred yards north of Hourglass. Too low of vis to estimate size or see anything but the powder clouds come over the bottom cliffs. 

Number of slides
2
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
Problem Type
New Snow
Snow Observation Source
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year

Reactive Storm Slabs on Mount Ellis

Mt Ellis
Northern Gallatin
Code
SS-N
Latitude
45.57770
Longitude
-110.95500
Notes

Skied big Ellis this morning. The temperature inversion was still active but not as dramatic as yesterday. The snow in the warm zone, near the top, of the inversion was well bonded and clearly affected by warmer temps. It was snowing hard up there but coming down as graupel. In the cold zone of the inversion the new snow was extremely active. We were remote triggering every small slope we passed on the gully exit. We saw many naturals breaking on any large open slope in the gully. The snow on the cold side of the inversion was blower but not bonding well at all. Could be a very sketchy setup if you find your self skiing in avy terrain that stayed cold over the last few days. 

Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
Problem Type
New Snow
Snow Observation Source
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year

Reactive Storm Slabs near Upper Brackett Creek

Ross Peak
Bridger Range
Code
SS-ASr-R1-D1
Elevation
7200
Aspect
SE
Latitude
45.86270
Longitude
-110.93600
Notes

New storm snow accumulating over the course of the morning became quite reactive once we descended out of the inversion.  Significant change starting around 7,200', where the surface had remained cold. We didn't observe any signs of instability while skiing between ~8,200' and ~7,200'.

Photo is a of remote trigger, SE facing slope, ~100' crown, ~3" depth.  Lots of shooting cracks and smaller remote triggers while touring out the FS roads. 

Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Skier
Trigger Modifier
r-A remote avalanche released by the indicated trigger
R size
1
D size
1
Problem Type
New Snow
Slab Thickness
3.0 inches
Slab Width
100.00ft
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year