24-25

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sun Feb 16, 2025

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>Human-triggered avalanches are likely on steep slopes with fresh drifts of wind-loaded snow in the mountains around Bozeman and Big Sky.</p>

<p><span>Today's primary concern is </span><strong>wind slab avalanches </strong><span>breaking 1-3 feet deep</span>. The Big Sky Ski Patrol reported rapid wind loading yesterday, triggering many wind slab avalanches during mitigation work. Expect similar conditions in the backcountry today. Recent backcountry avalanche observations include a snowmobiler-triggered slide on Buck Ridge yesterday (<a href="https://mtavalanche.com/node/34193">details and photo</a>), thin wind slabs triggered by a group up Storm Castle Creek on Friday (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34169"><span>observation</span></a&gt;) and several small wind slabs reported on Thursday in North Bridger Range, near the ice climbs in the Main Fork of Hyalite Creek and on Mt. Blackmore (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34160"><span>N. Bridger’s observation,</span></a> <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34144"><span>main fork of Hyalite observation</span></a>, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34137"><span>Mt. Blackmore observation</span></a>).</p>

<p><strong>Storm slab avalanches </strong>are a secondary problem. They will break within the layers of new snow as precipitation rates peak. While these will not be as large as wind slab avalanches, both may be large enough to injure or bury skiers and riders. Loose snow avalanches (sluffs) will be dangerous where they can tumble backcountry travels through technical terrain.</p>

<p>Seek out slopes sheltered from the effects of the wind and recognize recent avalanche activity and shooting cracks as critical information about a slope’s instability. Avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees below cornices and where you observe signs of significant wind loading.</p>

<p>The danger is CONSIDERABLE on wind-loaded slopes and MODERATE on all others.</p>

<p>Three-day storm totals nearing a foot of snow with an inch of <a href="https://avalanche.org/avalanche-encyclopedia/#snow-water-equivalent-swe… water equivalent</span></a> and fluffy snow drifting into unstable slabs create dangerous avalanche conditions on wind-loaded slopes in the mountains around West Yellowstone, Island Park, and Cooke City.</p>

<p><strong>W</strong><strong>ind slab avalanches</strong> breaking 1-2 feet deep are the primary problem. Yesterday, ski guides working south of Cooke City reported numerous avalanches (<a href="https://mtavalanche.com/node/34189"><strong><span>photos and observation</span></strong></a>). With heavier precipitation rates, instability will spread from wind-loaded slopes to all steep terrain in the form of storm slab and loose snow avalanches.</p>

<p><strong>Persistent slab avalanches</strong> failing on buried weak layers 2-3 feet deep remain an area of uncertainty. They are most likely on wind-loaded slopes where the snow layer resting on weak layers is thicker and more cohesive. Last week, Alex and I saw four avalanches that broke on layers of sugary facets and feathery surface hoar buried in late January. Avalanche activity on these layers hasn’t been widespread, but activity in the <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/34156"><span>Lionhead area,</span></a> <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/25/cornice-triggered-avalanche-miner… City</span></a>, and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZ3k35z5Ej8&amp;embeds_referring_euri=h… Fork</span></a> keeps it on the radar.</p>

<p>Avoid wind-loaded slopes where avalanches are more likely and would be larger. Seek out non-wind-loaded terrain, stay alert for signs of instability (recent avalanches, shooting cracks, and collapsing) and dig down three feet to test for instability before committing to steep slopes. The danger is CONSIDERABLE on wind-loaded slopes and MODERATE on all others.</p>

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Visable layer distinction about 8-12” deep

Date
Activity
Skiing

After taking a heavy landing on top of a pillow just off the highway past lolo pass road, I looked back up and could visibly see some layer distinction about 8-12” deep. This is the same weakish layer we found in our column test, where we got ect16 just below robs knob. This was on a north facing aspect.

Region
Cooke City
Observer Name
Ian Tuttle

Snowmobile triggered avalanche Buck Ridge

Buck Ridge
Northern Madison
Code
SS-AMu-R2-D2-S
Latitude
45.17190
Longitude
-111.38000
Notes

Buck ridge, snowmobile triggered avalanche. Propagated storm slab.

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Snowmobile
Trigger Modifier
u-An unintentional release
R size
2
D size
2
Bed Surface
S - Avalanche released within new snow
Problem Type
Storm Slab
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

Snowmobile triggered avalanche Buck Ridge

Date
Activity
Snowmobiling

From IG message: “Buck ridge, snowmobile triggered avalanche. Propagated storm slab.”

Region
Northern Madison
Location (from list)
Buck Ridge
Observer Name
Clay Erhard

Dry Loose Snow Avalanche Ghost Couloir

Sheep Creek
Cooke City
Code
L-N-R1-D1-S
Latitude
45.03440
Longitude
-109.98400
Notes

Today we saw a D1 dry loose in the Ghost Couloir. It ran 200 feet. We also felt one small collapse on a south facing slope. No other avalanches observed.

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Loose-snow avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
R size
1
D size
1
Bed Surface
S - Avalanche released within new snow
Problem Type
Loose Dry
Vertical Fall
200ft
Snow Observation Source
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

Many Wind Slab Avalanches Hayden Creek

Hayden Creek
Cooke City
Code
SS-N-R2-D2-I
Elevation
9800
Aspect
E
Latitude
44.99520
Longitude
-109.90800
Notes

In Hayden Creek, we saw many D1-D1.5 wind slab avalanches seen on leeward slopes- east and northeast slopes at and above treeline. We observed cracking in wind loaded areas above treeline. Dug a pit and did a quick ECT on E facing terrain at 9750ft. HS 190-210. ECTN6 30cm deep. No dirt layer. 

Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
R size
2
D size
2
Bed Surface
I - Interface between new and old snow
Problem Type
Wind Slab
Slab Thickness
12.0 inches
Vertical Fall
400ft
Slab Width
150.00ft
Snow Observation Source
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year